Based on reporting from K-12 Dive, Arizona’s universal education savings account (ESA) program continues to reshape the state’s K-12 landscape at an unprecedented pace. A new RAND Corp. analysis shows ESA participation has surged 633% in just three years — from 12,000 students in 2021-22 to 88,000 in 2024-25 — now representing roughly 7% of the state’s school-aged population. The program’s budget footprint has expanded in parallel, rising from $2.2 million at its 2011-12 launch to $886 million for 2024-25, or 10% of the Arizona Department of Education’s budget. RAND’s findings also highlight key usage patterns: most ESA dollars continue to support private school tuition, though spending on curriculum, tutoring, and other educational services is climbing. Participation growth has fueled a rapid expansion of the state’s education marketplace, with the number of ClassWallet vendors increasing more than fourfold since 2021 and private school options continuing to grow.
As nineteen states now operate ESAs and others consider similar programs, RAND’s analysis of Arizona offers data-driven lessons for policymakers. The report notes that early adopters tend to come from more affluent, higher-performing districts and that universal programs may initially increase state education costs, as many participants already attend private or homeschool settings. RAND recommends that states clearly define program goals, tailor outreach to families less familiar with school-choice mechanisms, add predictability to budgeting by limiting fund rollover, and strengthen transparency around spending and student outcomes. For states exploring new or expanded ESA models, Arizona’s trajectory offers both the opportunities and the operational challenges of scaling a universal choice program.
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Student participation in Arizona’s universal private school choice program has grown an exponential 633% — from 12,000 students in the 2021-22 school year to 88,000 students in 2024-25, to equal about 7% of the state’s school-aged population, according to a Rand Corp. analysis published Thursday.
